Knife Catchers

I said before that I don't quite get how silver is so great an investment in the past year as it's been hovering in the $26 to $40 range yoyoing up and down but inflexion decided to bit apart my post on it...I still wonder about silver and it being at $29.50/oz and was $26 and change 5 months ago...still waiting on it to "take off" if it ever will...I know that with all the printing pm's should go up but...also that would involve people using that extra money to buy it too right?

 

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My take on all of it is PM went up due to either people's fear of inflation or expected inflation. They are reacting to what happened the last time we had turmoil, and that was high inflation. However, to cure it we hiked up interest rates and basically killed PM since they do not generate interest.

PM should go up every year, and maybe more than average due to oil and a couple of cultures who covet gold above all else getting richer. Anything other than that I believe is a fear price.

Its still too pricey for me, but if it came down there are quite a few gold coins I would like to own, and if gold lowered I might start buying them.

 

Precious metals went up due to multiple reasons 1) Main reason is increasing wealth in emerging markets (India, Vietnam, China) drove up more demand for PMs 2) Due to lowering interest rates for bonds investors started seeking alternatives 3) is as you described fear (tinfoil time) but it did not come into play till a couple years ago.

PMs prices are coming down as well as commodities due to strengthening dollar, slowing global markets and sell off to raise cash by various institutions and even countries (reports of a large Iran sell off).

 

At a minimum I expect silver to continue down and fill in the remaining gaps. That puts it close to the triple bottom at 26, which it will likely retest.
Every time it tests that level there is more likelihood it fails.

Most of the high volume days in SLV have been down days. The highest volume days were down. It suggests massive distribution by large holders (into smaller hands).

 

Oil, Oil, Oil......everything hinges on oil. Oil prices have fallen substantually this last few weeks. Let them keep falling & I will keep buying....just double down on your last purchase till it rebounds and it will.
The Saudi's need it at $100 per barrel to keep their status quo & our frackers in the US only break even at $80 per barrel.
The Saudi's will ship less & the frackers will shut down wells if prices aren't to their liking. Thus, just bringing the prices back up.
Kinder Morgan cut back production/shut wells when the NG price just plain bottomed. Since then it has started to rebound.

So keep buying that silver but load up on oil trust,oil producers, and oil suppliers while prices are falling. You will be rewarded in the end. If anyone thinks oil is going to be below $100 per barrel for long (1-2 yrs.) then, oh well.

I love my ASE's but they just don't power the car well or generate that electricity. I can imagine this world with no electric power......no oil for transportation, heat, packaging products, etc....

Buy Silver, Gold, Oil, Electric,......but most of all, BUY AMERICAN!

Peace To All

 

is this what you were doing back in 2008 when prices were similar? they jut kept going down, down, down...sure if you held til the price went back up you'd make a killing....but also you'd have to wait for it to go back up...

I'd just worry buying at $29/oz or $96.50/barrel but then it drops down to $23oz or lower like to $12/oz back in 2009.... and into the $40's a barrel as well...

Seems to me that the recession the Economic Cycle Research institute has been calling for might actually be happening...who knows...

 

About the only things that would actually suprise me is silver under $20 and gold under $1200. Other than that, it's about what's expected by many chartists and pm "specialists" (don't know of any real experts). What would actually suprise me is you same posters posting about this subject a year from now, by that I mean "falling knife catching". Look at it however you want, but too many things stacked up against pm's right now, namely elections and trying to get re-elected.

I hope to see all kinds of cooked up statistics for the next 5 months as the comic pages just don't do it for me any longer....

One other thing, if you actually have a stack with a plan to hold, don't panic sell because of this nonsense. You'll be very sorry. Once this shakes out and we get out of the election cycle, you'll be happy you held out. The current spot prices will look like a sad joke next year at this time.

 

If you actually want to read what people in the PM business have to say, skip the nonsense and go to about page 17 of the comments. It'll open your eyes, clear out some cobwebs and maybe even make this drop make all kinds of sense.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/harvey-organ-get-physical-gold-silver/73933?page=0#comments