Scenarios of social dissolution
by, 12-06-2009 at 01:11 PM (1076 Views)
I have read quite a few articles about society unravelling and social unrest occurring, some of them are fictional and some are factional, which means a story that utilizes facts that are used to underscore an ideology or world view.
For instance Germany after ww1 was hit with terriific indemnities, punitive actions mainly instigated by France with the intent that they would be so crippling that Germany would never again threaten France, and that France would once again be the dominant power on the Europeon continent. The debt was monetized by germany and hyper inflation occurred, this led to the rise of Hitler and National Socialism, which is like International Socialism but without the larger focus.
A lot of our friends who collect bullion have a scenario where federal reserve notes lose all purchasing power and old silver and gold coins become the only means of purchase or trade, which is to me a bit farfetched, since most people have no clue anymore about money being backed by metals, after all gold and silver certificates have not circulated for a long time.
Back when LBJ and the democrats of his day took silver out of the coins, one of my friends and I would argue some about it, his argument was that the money was worthless without the backing, my argument was that the metal was worthless without being able to spend it, if you took a silver half dollar to the local walmart they would not give you 6 dollars or whatever the melt value of it is, they would only give you the nominal value of the coin, 50 cents or half a dollar.
So if you save bullion unless you deal with someone who knows the value, you will still have to exchange your metal for legal tender. This gives cash value still, it may be less according to inflation.
Now unlike back in the day when the dollar was pegged to gold reserves, where for years it was 38 per ounce, now the value is changed every moment, so any exchanger has to have a margin where he can purchase your bullion and still make a profit, with gold sometimes swinging one way or the other 40 or 50 dollars a day, I would guess that would tend to make his margin of safety a bit more then if the swings were 40 or 50 cents a day.
Now if hyperinflation kicked in and golds swings started to become hundreds or thousands of dollars a day, your exchanges would reflect that, so it seems to me that those who could plan ahead, so as to make themselves less desperate, less needy to have to sell, would be able to avoid having to sell on terms which would become more disadvantageous.
It seems to me then that the best plan for americans would be to retrench some, to disengage from an international relationship where we borrow money from other nations to give to needy nations, the fact is that history shows that the charity we give to those needy nations usually ends up in the swiss bank accounts of the local tyrants and dictators. Better charity would be to support ngos that work directly with the people, and in cases where the tyranny is extreme enough that all aid must come thru them it probably is better to not take that route.
The social dissolution stories of my youth seemed to focus more on huge disasters that caused people to lose their civilization and become predatory animals preying on each other, a lot of todays social dissolution stories seem to be more where predatory animals in human form use civilization to cause disasters.
Wether the culprits are neocons or international socialists, or some other hybrids, the important lesson is that all those ideologies that men make to serve humanity, if left unchecked soon attempt to become mans master. It is good to remember that the good intentions should not excuse the evil actions.